Transcending the Traditional Productive Force Theory
Transcending the Traditional Productive Force Theory
Our world is transforming from “material-centered pattern” to “knowledge-centered pattern” and further to “human-centered pattern”; the major productive force is also changing from material productive force to knowledge productive force，and further to human-centered productive force.
Today，in a Western developed country, one big automobile factory’s annual output can almost meet the need of all countries in the world for one year. Such a phenomenon similar to surplus of productive force has already become a common phenomenon.
Is productive force really in surplus?
What is in surplus is only the material productive force. In the present times, we have to recognize the other two major productive forces: Knowledge productive force and human-centered productive force.
Since the first official use of the concept “knowledge-based economy” in the document of the international organization “Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 1996, the tide of knowledge economy has swept the whole world, knowledge productive force has been taking the place of material productive force to become the main force in economical development. In the hot topic “new economy”，the true connotation of the “new” is the new productive force. Both agricultural economy and industrial economy take the material productive force as the main, but the new economy takes knowledge productive force as the main, and its growth chiefly depends on the production, spreading and application of knowledge. Just as managerial master Peter Druc points out, the major function of the new economy is “production and distribution of knowledge and information, instead of production and distribution of materials”.
Our world is transforming from “material-centered pattern” to “knowledge-centered pattern” and further to “human-centered pattern”; the major productive force is also changing from material productive force to knowledge productive force，and further to human-centered productive force.
The victory or defeat in economic competition increasingly hangs upon the human，that is, hangs upon the “human capital” or “human resources”. A research result by World Bank has proved：64% of the wealth in the world is dependent on human capital；According to a recent research report from America, in America, 80% of the work posts are essentially for brainwork. If the same set of advanced equipment can have a production efficiency of 10 in New York and Tokyo, its efficiency might be even unable to reach 3 in Cairo or Rangoon. After Arabia made a big fortune because of its petroleum, such an idea occurred to some Arabian plutocrats: “Buy a modernization”. As a result, advanced technical equipment has been introduced, and modern factory buildings have been set up, yet, they lack well-trained people, the work force’s quality is very low, and the management level is very low, hence, their production efficiency is very low. Therefore, the program “to buy a modernization” has to be declared as a failure. On the con
trary, America, as the representative of the flourishing “new economy”, has greatly benefited from the human-centered productive force. Just as Chairman of US Committee of First Lunar Landing Exploration said, “America’s greatest assets are a group of inventors and entrepreneurs，and they are the key to the wealth of the country.” America’s educational investment accounts for 7% of the GDP or more, and the sophisticated education system makes it possible for the citizens to receive new education at any moment and place. Meanwhile，America has been gathering highly able people from all countries of the world. In the recent years，America’s number of people winning the Nobel Prize accounted for a half of the prizewinners in each year. Many American corporations carry out the employee stock ownership plan，their wage cost is the first big item in the production costs, accounting for 80% or so.
So we can see that，in the current and future economy，the real impetus is the human，or the human-centered productive force.
Human is a tool making animal. From burnishing the first piece of stone, mankind began its tool making and tool using history. The role played by tools in human progress is so great that people even use the feature or material of the tool to name an age, such as Stone Age, Bronze Age, Iron Age, Steamer Age and so on.
The great change of material productive force lies in the revolution of the tool. Making stoneware was the first great change of mankind’s material productive force. The greatest change in the modern history of human material productive force should be said to be the invention of the steamer. In the 21st century，the full automated production system represented by the highly capable robot will become the greatest revolution in mankind’s tool using history.
The trend has already shown up.
Nowadays，America’s peasant population is less than 2%. The workers’ proportion is only 17%, and it is predicted that by 2020, it will be less than 2%，and by 2025, ordinary workers will lose their position completely. Along with the speedup of robot industrialization, there will be even sharper revolutions：Then，farmers and workers doing traditional production of material objects will disappear from our earth. Unmanned factories and unmanned farms will become common phenomena.
In future, there will be such a picture in most factories：No one，not even a single person. No talking voice, no sneezing sound, no coughing sound, but only the sound of machines’ running. These mechanical “workers” do not need a rest，nor do they demand a wage, nor do they complain about poor labour insurance conditions. They just keep loyal and devoted one hundred percent，do not know tiredness，work 24 hours every day, even do not hesitate to go through fire and water. They can replace humans completely in doing tiring, boring and dangerous jobs that we are unwilling to do. They never complain of suffering, and keep polite and obedient forever.
Robots will not only be active on the production lines of factories, but also enter every sector of our life. Throughout the ages，what housewives have been longing for is just to shake off the onerous housework completely some day. From ancient till present, housework is so heavy and boring, but it has to be done, even to the extent that many economists have drummed up the idea of letting women return to the home to specialize in housework. Just as an economist says, “There is hardly anything in the world that can be more like Sisyphus’ stone than housework：Clean clothes become dirty, dirty clothes are washed clean, but become dirty again, so you have to wash them again… Such things repeat again and again，day after night，without end at all. Housewives are tired in mind and exhausted in strength because of such tedious jobs, but they have just kept the existing state, and have done nothing beyond it.” In the near future，Sisyphus’ stone may leave us at last. When we go to bed every night, the robots as small as matchboxes will come out one after another, working in good order, such as mopping the floor, wiping the furniture, getting clothes in order… According to the prediction by Rolfe Dittel, a German professor, 5 to 10 years later, home robot servants may be popularized to ordinary homes like the washing machine.
Factory production will be automated，and so will housework. Nowadays, housework also belongs to the service industry，so, many economists are considering that the state should pay wages to women who have returned home for housework. But all such areas of material production will be automated，without the need for manpower, and mankind will be liberated completely from this field.
Apart from automation of material production, the more robots participating, the cheaper the products will become. The general development trend is: the cost of material production will drop greatly. Once product production needs no manpower，and after a great deal of “self-reproduction” of the robot, its price will become very cheap, approaching “zero price”. The whole process from high price to middle price and to low price，until “zero price” finally，can be called a “zero price” trend of material production brought about by all-round automation.
Production automation and product tending towards zero-price are just the great changes in material productive force. And it depends on the degree of realization of the two major indices in development of the robot：One is the working capacity of the robot, and the other is the cost of the robot.
First, let’s look at the robot’s working capacity. Robots may replace humans and surpass humans completely. Not only in physical strength, but also in intelligence, it will approach human intelligence gradually, and it is even possible that robots surpassing humans in all aspects will appear some day. Many scientists assert that the robot’s intelligence might surpass the total intelligence of Einstein and Hawking.
Secondly, let’s look at the cost of the robot. It is the key factor deciding whether material production can be fully automated and products can tend towards zero-price. Negroponte once predicted that we would spend one dollar to buy a computer in future. In future, may all of us spend the money just enough for buying a cup of coffee, to buy a robot that is both intelligent and willing to bear the burden of hard jobs? Quite possible! According to the prediction by United Nations’ Economic Commission, in the coming 5 to 10 years, robots may be as popular as today’s computers or mobile phones: every family may have one or even several robots.
Production cost is closely related to the speed of product development. The computer used to be inaccessible to most people, but its developing speed is so fast that in every 18 months，its performance indices rise by one time and its price drops by one half；What about the mobile phone? In China, in 1990, there were only 20,000 mobiles in the whole country. At that time, holding a mobile was the marker of a tycoon. But nowadays, it grows at the shocking rate of 280% each year, and younglings change their mobiles as casually as changing a dress. If we develop it consciously, the developing speed of the robot will surely surpass that of the computer or the mobile far and away. What is more important，robots may do self-reproduction. Each time the robot reproduces itself, it can self-correct its shortcomings cleverly, so that the duplicates can be much better. In “producing” a person useful to the society, the parents will spend several decades in bringing him up, so the time cost and social cost are very high；But
the robot can do self-reproduction continually, and the cost may approach “zero” gradually.
Will mankind really retreat completely from material production? From ancient till now, material production has always been in the unshakable primary position. The reason is so simple: First of all, we must eat, drink, wear, and reside. But does that signify material production must be primary? No! Air and sunlight are also the most necessary things for human survival, but we do not need to “produce” them ourselves. Thus，although they are absolutely necessary to every person, we never need to pay money for them. The same is true of future material production. Although such needs met by material production as food, drink, clothes and houses are basic needs for human survival, the development of robots will automate material production completely, material production will no longer need human labor, and the cost of robots will be almost as cheap as “zero”，then, prices of products will also be almost as cheap as “zero”，just like air and sunlight, without need to pay money, being close to free supply.
In the face of the automation trend of material production，some people have got into a panic，wanting to stop it. But it is a pity that all those efforts are just like throwing straws against the wind. In time of the industrial revolution in the 18th century, a so-called “Lud Movement” broke out in Great Britain, which was a movement of artificial destruction of machines；Today，similar things have appeared: There are many people fearing robots and hating robots. Some scientists are worrying that the would-be “robot species” on the earth might threaten human life. In fact, it will not be so. As early as the time before the robot was born, American science fiction writer Asimov published a book Robot, which set three ground rules for the relationship between robot and human：
The robot may not hurt mankind.
The robot may not sit watching when mankind is being hurt.
The robot may not result in hurting of mankind.
In any condition or any case，the robot should never go against the three major rules. The robot is made by man, and all robots in future will abide strictly by these three major rules. Hence，the robot is bound to be absolutely obedient and loyal to mankind, and should never threaten human life.
The all-round automation production system represented by the robot has caused an earthshaking change in mankind’s material productive force. After realization of full automation and zero-price of products, man will be freed from the material production that has swallowed most of his time and energy since his birth, and will use all his time and energy for the most valuable things. So, all fine dreams that mankind dare not imagine now will come true for certain.After the robot does everything for mankind, what should man do then? Where does human value lie?
To answer this question, please answer another question first：In the beginning period of America, its farming population was as high as 95%，but now it is only 2%. Where have the former farmers gone? In addition, where have the so many industrial workers gone? Most of them have turned to the service industry. From now on, even the service industry will be undertaken by robots mostly. So, more and more people are bound to flow into the knowledge production industry，namely the science and technology industry. The whole society will step into a science society and intelligence society，with stress being laid on development of the knowledge productive force.