Human production is the most fundamental production of all productions
Human production is the most fundamental production of all productions
In comparison with the old theory of “trio industry”, the new theory of “quintet industry” has made the following contribution: it has separated the human-centered industry and the science and technology industry from the original “tertiary industry”, and takes the human-centered industry as the first industry of the economy of the 21st century and regards the science and technology industry as the second industry.
Our economic theory should keep abreast with the times，and the “trio industry” theory has lagged behind the times, unsuitable to the economical development of the 21st century. So long as we stand at the front of the times and take a great foresight for the future，we will certainly find the “quintet industry” pattern will be the megatrend of future economy development.
The human-centered industry includes culture industry, education industry, eugenics industry, life industry and so on.
What does the human-centered industry produce?
It produces humans，consummate human beings!
Human production is the most fundamental production of all productions, and the human-centered industry is the most fundamental industry of all industries. The human-centered industry is the foreground in future economy. Hence，the human-centered industry is the first industry.
Today, people have already reached the consensus that the education industry is an industry for human reproduction. Moreover, the culture industry is also an industry for human reproduction. Culture can change a person’ thought, concept and soul，thereby changing everything of the person. The eugenics industry is optimization of human production. The life products and health products turned out from the life industry may optimize human health and life so that a person’s life quality and survival time can become optimal, thus, they naturally belong to the category of human production.
Let’s look at the culture industry first. The future economy will be ruled by the culture industry. In many developed countries and regions，the culture industry is a rising new force constituting a very important part in economic growth, and will become a major growth point and mainstay industry in their national economy. Just as Daniel Bell says in his Advent of the Postindustrial Society, “Economy has become the production of the life style displayed by the culture”. Hollywood seems to be just as important as Silicon Valley. Without understanding the charm of the culture industry, we shall be unable to understand why Jordan’s economic contribution should be 20 billion US dollars，why books, perfumes, underwear, movies and Nike sneakers about Jordan should be sold like hot cakes, why NBA tournament should get such a great audience, why so many countries should be vying to get the building right to Disney parks…
In his inaugural address, Korean president Kim Dae-jung declared to “Build Our Country through Culture”, stressing that they should develop the culture industry into the backbone industry in the 21st century. The power of “Korea-philes” is getting greater and greater in China, and Korean Teleplays have a far-reaching impact on China.
American writer J.K.Rowling used to be in abject poverty and lived on the government’s relief before she published her best seller Harry Potter that was sold in 270 million copies in the world! According to a British news medium’s report, British parents have spent 40 million pounds buying products related to Harry Potter. That cafe frequented by Rowling has also become world famous now. Coca-Cola Company spent 1 billion US dollars to buy the right to print Harry Potter’s smile on the coke can. The film “Harry Potter” has also become a hit challenging “Titanic”，bringing about a huge profit… The report released by New England Committee highlights the promoting role played by culture in bringing about job opportunities. In the said region, there are 245,000 people engaged in this industry, outnumbering the people in the software industry that used to be considered as the leading industry in that region. So, culture economy has already reached the scale comparable to Silicon Valley’s electronics and communication sector. The report stresses that culture economy has infused a vitality into the urban economy that seems to have tended towards decline, it can build up a healthier community, which is of far reaching importance to the sustainable development of England.
While using their culture to attack China and changing Chinese people’s ideology deeply or even overly (reshaping and producing people intangibly), Westerners also make big money from it. Oscar，NBA，Disney，MTV，Hollywood，Madonna , Mcdonald’s，TOEFL，GRE，CNN… Each of them has resulted in a huge production value and each of them has produced far-reaching impact on the world. Especially, while making big money, Americans are spreading their concept of values，which has not only conquered the populace and young students，but also overcome scholars and celebrities, even the elite on the top of the society have prostrated themselves before the American culture. Yet, on the other hand, Chinese culture’s competitive power and position in the world culture market seems to be shrinking, as if there is nothing in our culture except Peking opera and the Great Wall. The Chinese have not realized that culture is also an industry，and always regard culture as a trade needing sponsoring from others, so, even the traditional Chinese story “Hua Mulan” had to be made into a film by Hollywood. The advertisement sales volume of the whole magazine market of China is only 1% to 2% of that of USA. China is behind the West in science and technology. But should we bite the ground in culture industry too? If we do not awaken，we shall lose our future unavoidably!
The education industry is an industry that “produces” the most important production factor: highly able persons. The education industry is a basic industry characterized by all-inclusive contents and a guiding role, and the return rate of educational investment is very high as well. Education itself is a profitable industry. The education output value of USA ranks No. 3 in all the industries of US economy, the income from education service alone is as high as 200 billion dollars each year，providing job opportunities for 2 million people. More than a half of the institutions of higher learning in the developed countries are private universities，from Harvard, Yale to Waseda… Facts of economic development in the developed countries and regions have proved, “The investment with the highest return is education”. Why do we call some countries “developed countries”? The top reason is their advanced education. “First-rate education turns out first-rate people, and only first-rate people can work out first-rate products”. The education industry has good reason to be regarded as one of the top key industries.
The human-centered industry also includes the eugenics industry, the 1000-year longevity industry and so on. Everything should take the human as the base and the human takes life as the base. Health and life are eternal themes in mankind’s pursuance, hence, life industry including the 1000-year longevity industry and so on is also a human-centered industry with top significance. I have already talked about such industries in the previous sections.
“Science” and “technology” are different concepts. The definition of “science” in Great Chinese Dictionary is: “It is a knowledge system on nature, society and thinking”. The definition of “technology” made by French scientist Diderot in his Encyclopedia is: “Technology is a system of the methods, means and rules for attaining a certain goal.” The task of science is to solve the problems of “what is” something and “why is so”，whereas the task of technology is to answer questions about “what should be done” and “how to do”.
The science and technology industry includes such knowledge production industries as scientific research industry, technical study industry, technological development industry, science and technology consultation industry, managerial consultation industry and so on.
Science and technology are becoming more and more important in economical development. According to statistics，in developed countries，70-80% of their postwar economic growth resulted from advances in science and technology. The contribution ratio of science and technology knowledge to economic growth was only 5% to 20% at the beginning of the 20th century, but now in some developed countries it has already risen to 80% to 90%. In these countries, it has really become the first productive force. As the overlord of global economy, America has benefited greatly from its rich investment in science and technology. In 1994, America’s investment in research and development amounted to 173.02 billion US dollars，equivalent to the total investment of Japan and Germany in this area. In 1997, it reached 205.742 billion US dollars. The massive investment in research and development has kept America’s leading position in the world in almost all the basic research areas and 24 of the 27 key technology fields, especially in information technology, biological engineering, new materials and space navigation technology. In 1997, the contribution ratio of America’s hi-tech industry to US economy growth already exceeded 55%. Moreover，the cycle of science and technology R & D has been greatly shortened: In 1990，the average new product development cycle in America was 35 months; In 1995, it was shortened to 24 months. It will be further shortened from now on. Thus, the speed of industrialization of high-grade technologies is rising very fast.
Scientific research achievements are the greatest assets and the most precious assets. Bill Gates has neither factory building, nor manufacturing machines，and he became the top zillionaire of the world just by his wisdom and research achievements. The huge energy of the science and technology industry has become evident for a long time. All such life economy and human-centered economy as the 1000-year longevity industry, the god-sleeping industry, the ecstasy industry, the eugenics industry, the space industry and so on, will depend on the power of high technology.
Science and technology will show a greater and greater power in future development. All kinds of high technology，such as electronics, information technology, life science and technology, new energy technology, new material technology, space technology, oceanology, environmental technology and management technology and so on，will show their magic power in future economy. Biologic cloning technology has already been able to change the traditional agriculture, traditional livestock husbandry and aquaculture on a large scale；Around the human genome, a keen competition for the patent rights is going on, each patent is an incantation of Alibaba for opening a great treasure-trove；New energy sources and new materials are coming out one after another, which can almost free the economical operation from the impact of fluctuant international petroleum prices；Development of environmental technology has cast the twilight of harmonious coexistence of human and nature… In prospect to the new century，the science and technology industry will become the main battleground for competition among all countries in economy. All kinds of high and new technology will grow mature，climaxes of science and technology development will come one after another, causing great revolutions in the productive forces of human society.
Hence，the science and technology industry will naturally become the second industry. Whether for the government or for the enterprise，in drawing up their strategies for economic development, they must take the human-centered industry and the science and technology industry as the priorities. The human-centered industry and the science and technology industry are not the fifth industry or the fourth industry，but are the first industry and the second industry in status. That is the grand strategy for development in the 21st century.
By great development of the first industry — the human-centered industry, and the second industry — the science and technology industry，we may reshape the traditional agriculture, industry and service industry，causing fundamental changes in all traditional trades including agriculture, foodstuff industry, textile industry, automobile industry, real estate industry, manufacturing industry and so on. Even some declining industries may regain their life in the stimulation by the human-centered industry and the science and technology industry. In other words，only by dint of the human-centered industry and the science and technology industry can the future agriculture, industry and service industry (the service industry separated from the human-centered industry and the science and technology industry) “scale a new height”!
For example，by reshaping agriculture through science and technology, we may turn it into a new agriculture, which will be both full of high technology and full of high humanity. Then, the tomato, milk, meat and so on will make people healthier, more long-lived, more beautiful and cleverer. The future agriculture will be integrated with the health industry and the medicine industry, and the tie for the integration is high technology. The future agriculture will also develop towards gene agriculture, fine agriculture and Internet-based agriculture. Then, there will be “super rice” with a per mu yield of one ton and “super pig” that can grow 1 kg a day; Agriculture will become very fine work, irrigation will become “drip irrigation”，and the Internet-based agricultural database, and Internet-based technology and information service will help the farmer get any agricultural information instantly. By reforming the traditional agriculture through high technology, we shall find new ways out for agriculture. And we can deduce the rest from this, such as reforming the traditional manufacturing industry through science and technology, reforming the service industry through science and technology, and so on.
To reshape traditional industries through science and technology, we must do employment structure adjustment while doing industrial structure adjustment. China has adjusted its industrial structure into a manufacturing industry type，but its employment structure remains to be the agriculture type, thus, it is a dualistic structure now. Only changing the industrial structure but keeping the employment structure unchanged, has brought about an even greater problem：Farmers account for 75% of the whole country’s population, but this “first industry” with the most labor inputs in China only accounts for 15.9% of the total amount of national economy! The “three rural problems” (agriculture, countryside and farmers) have become the “obstinate diseases” in China’s modernization process. Some foreign scholars think, in comparison with Europe and America, China has lagged behind not only one hundred years in the key areas. Take Germany for example, the proportion of Germany’s work force in industry was higher than that of the present China even as early as the 1870’s; Germany’s urbanization level in 1880 was much higher even than the present China. According to the statistics in 1990，26.3% of Chinese live in towns，but the rate of urban population in Germany already reached 39% in 1877. To a great extent, China’s economy is still at the stage of the fifth industry — agriculture. From agriculture to industry and to service industry, it will need a great industrial structure transformation. In such a situation, we may just use human-centered industry and the science and technology industry to boost the industrialization process, instead of waiting for the realization of the industrialization goal and then beginning to develop the human-centered industry and the science and technology industry.
Judging from the surface，today’s Chinese economy is very prosperous, the manufacturing industry is progressing by leaps and bounds, the infrastructure construction is growing like a raging fire，and China has almost become a world factory. The future China will certainly become a great power in the world.
Can we say so definitely?
There is no doubt that China’s economy will progress in all aspects for a long time, but if we do not pay attention to the industrial structure and neglect adjustment of industrial structure，it will also be doubtless that China will degrade into a labor country and a processing plant of the world. If we only adhere to the “trio industry theory”，do not see the predominance of the human-centered industry and the science and technology industry in the future economy, and lack a long-term general plan, a general strategy and general measures，China will get into a miserable state again. We cannot evade the ruthless reality：Our country has not even finished the task of industrialization, and our employment structure is still at the agriculture stage largely. We need to both “make up for the old lesson” and “learn the new lesson”. What is to be done? Should we only follow others?
The way of thinking decides the way out. What way of thinking should we use to face the grim reality?
The only way out is the road of frog-leaping development. If we await industrialization before starting the service industry and starting up the science and technology industry and the human-centered industry，we will lag behind in every step, and never be able to catch up or surpass others. On the contrary，if we, according to the quintet industry theory，foresee the chance in future economy timely, do strategic deployment for future economy ahead of time, go all out to develop the first industry — the human-centered industry, and the second industry — the science and technology industry，then, we may use the minimum learning cost and the maximum learning efficiency to catch up with “the global co-rotation speed”. In this way，we may be able to take the “later-coming advantage” and work wonders!
Perhaps someone will say that it is too unrealistic to transform our country’s economic structure to the science and technology industry and the human-centered industry. But we must know, only by re-enforcing development effort in the science and technology industry and the human-centered industry can we realize a frog-leaping development. Only when the science and technology industry and the human-centered industry have grown greatly can the quality of all citizens such as workers and farmers be improved greatly, so as to realize the macro adjustment of the industrial structure. At the early stage in the history of America, agriculture was also their primary industry，and they had to use 95% of the manpower to support the population of the whole country. But today, America only uses less than 2% of the people to support the population of the whole country, and it has become the greatest grain exporter in the world! If we continue to bind the 900 million farmers to the land，we shall have only one way out: death. Only improving the farmers’ quality as fast as possible and transferring farmers to other jobs in large numbers is the true grand strategy of national economy development of our country!
Whoever can foresee the future will win the victory. Whoever can conform to the trend of the times and conform to the trend of industrial revolution, will become winners in future economy, or may even leap from the present backward country to a world advanced country! Otherwise，if we always go behind the developed countries，we can only be losers forever.
What Confucius liked most about Yan Hui (his student) was his “not blaming others” and “not making the same mistake”. We should never attribute our own failure to others, but should always blame ourselves! In refusing change and refusing industrial revolution，we have paid a price of one century’s stigmata, and nearly two century’s lagging behind. What is more important，we should learn “not to make the same mistake” again. In the face of the new economic situation in the 21st century, we should never be satisfied with the present prosperity and peace, but be ready to bear some pains for the successful transformation of industrial structure, that is, pay the due price for the strategic victory. Otherwise, we will lose the future，and our nation will be confronted by endless trouble for certain!
In the 21st century，every country，especially our China that has never taken the leading position after the agricultural economy, is faced with a more profound industrial revolution，and a new great industrial structure adjustment is awaiting us, which is full of opportunities and challenges.
According to the quintet industry theory，laying stress on development of the science and technology industry and the human-centered industry will be a great opportunity for a great leap forward for both developed countries and developing countries.
The earlier we realize that, seize the chance, make plans and take actions, the earlier we will win.